Tin Foil Hats

Last night I wound up in a several hour long distance phone conversation with an old high school buddy. I have not seen him in many years, and though we stay in touch, I had not spoken with him in many months.  The conversation began innocently, discussing the current status of old friends and our own social and economic situations.  As the subject turned to politics, I began to realize that my old friend had embraced some radical ideas. 

He is a very intelligent man, and has always been fairly moderate politically in his beliefs.  I spent most of the conversation trying to ferret out how he came to his viewpoints, what his sources for his ideas were, and most important I think: The reason he, or anyone of similar character, is embracing such stuff.

The exploration of this topic began as my friend described the economic situation of the Northern California town where he and I grew up and went to school.  His description was disheartening: businesses shuttered, unemployment rampant, crime (including home invasions) way up.  He talked about the streets being unsafe, with street gangs roaming everywhere.  All this social and economic decay in a town I recall primarily as a middle class bedroom community.  He talked about being personally trapped in his own seemingly hopeless economic circumstances.  He described his situation as being in a cage.

It was then he made a comment that made my jaw drop.  I had asked him about his plans for the future and what he was going to do to move forward.  His reply was “It doesn’t matter.  The world banking system and the government are all going to collapse in a few months anyway and I have enough guns and ammo to hold the lawless hoards off for a while”.  He didn’t say this sarcastically or metaphorically.  He really meant it

My friend has always been a gun enthusiast.  I recall many years ago going out in the country with him on numerous occasions to do target shooting.  This interest, along with his internet skills (which are substantial), had led him eventually onto blogs posted by fringe groups and militias, many of which actively desire the downfall of the US government and the world economic system.  Some of these groups are purely anarchist in nature, while others have xenophobic and racist overtones.  To be clear:  I do not believe my friend (who like me is Caucasian) has a racist bone in his body.  He does however have a lot of frustration with non-English speaking Hispanics that now make up a considerable portion of the population of his hometown. 

These fringe websites and blogs told him something that he really wanted to hear.  They told him that his circumstances are in no way his own fault.  They told him that his situation is the product of a conspiracy by rich people, banks, and the government aimed at repressing him and those like him.  They gave him someone to blame other than himself.

We went through a number of the conspiracy theories that are current with these groups, all of which I am satisfied I was able to debunk.  Most importantly, I was able to get my friend to question the efficacy of these theories.  Questioning facts and sources of everything reported in the media or online is essential to exposing lies, spin, and hypocrisy.  Radicalism thrives when you unquestioningly believe things that affirm your own emotional attachment to a cause or issue.  To keep centered on any subject, you must always doubt, you must always be able to ask yourself: “is it possible that what I believe is wrong?”

At this point, I should articulate my viewpoint on conspiracy theories.  They usually appeal to an emotional need to believe a particular viewpoint and are seldom backed by thoroughly convincing data, thus the term “theories”.  I don’t find evidence for bigfoot or alien autopsies very compelling.  I don’t think the government has crashed flying sauces stored at Area 51 or Wright-Patterson AFB.  I think John Kennedy was most likely shot by Lee Harvey Oswald acting alone and Robert Kennedy was most likely shot by Sirhan Sirhan acting alone.  My reasoning for all this is uncomplicated.  I find the argument known as Occam’s Razor to be compelling:  When offered competing hypotheses, by far the most likely is the one which makes the fewest assumptions.  All the conspiracy theories I just mentioned do have well known alternative explanations, but when unbiased light is shined brightly on the known facts, the less convoluted explanations seem far more plausible.

My conversation with my old friend covered a wide range of conspiracies.  The first was birtherism, the belief that President Barack Obama is somehow not an American.  My friend was familiar with the arguments of Arizona sheriff Joe Arpaio, and his contention that the president’s birth certificate is a forgery.  I pointed out that his recent contentions have been thoroughly refuted by the state of Hawaii and even Arizona governor Jan Brewer, who is well known for her dislike of the president.  Her position was reported in the March 6, 2012 edition of the Phoenix area newspaper, the East Valley Tribune.

The conversation went further into the weeds from there.  My friend stated that the United States was made a corporation by the “Act of 1871” which made it a wholly owned subsidiary of the Bank of England and the Rothschild family.  While I did find articles about this on some conspiracy websites, finding the source document itself was more of a challenge.  Eventually I found that this theory was based on an otherwise non-descript law passed that year that detailed somewhat how the process the US government can use to collect debts should work.  They were making an amazing stretch of logic to construe that this somehow made the US government beholden to the huge banking interests of the time.  It reminded me of an episode of the animated show Southpark, where underwear gnomes were stealing underwear from dryers to somehow make a profit.  The process to achieve the end result was not comprehendible to anyone except these gnomes.

My friend then brought up a story about multi-billionaire George Soros selling off ALL of his stock to buy gold so he could weather the coming economic collapse.  This is proof he said of this eminent catastrophe.  Again the sources were a variety of militia and conspiracy sites, and can be easily googled.  My research found that Earlier this year Soros had spoken about gold in a negative light, stating at the time that gold was artificially high.  Indeed his statement alone may have caused gold prices to stabilize or even go down slightly.  More recently, he sold $130 million in stock and bought gold with it.  Not his entire $20 billion portfolio, mind you, but 1/150^th of it.  This is a substantial sum, but not unprecedented.  Simply buying gold negated the effect of his previous statement and the purchase caused the price of gold to rise.  There is no data on whether he held this position or sold it.  He could have sold all that gold in hours or days.  He would have made $1.3 million on that sale for every 1% increase in the price of gold his actions caused.  I find this profit motive far more compelling then the conspiracy claim that he was preparing for some bizarre coming “economic Armageddon”.

The conversation later turned to a lawsuit filed by a man named Neil Keenan.  The lawsuit itself seems to be real, but I found myself questioning the factual basis for it.  The conspiracy consists of the idea that all the world's gold is somehow actually controlled by the family of the former dictator of Indonesia, Suharto, and that he was a just a controlling entity for the actual owner, a shadowy group from China known as the “Dragon Family”.  The gold was stolen by European banks and the US Federal Reserve somehow through shadowy dealings with the Vatican Illuminati (isn't "Vatican" and "Illuminati" contradictory terms?).  Is your BS filter going off?  I know mine was, but somehow my intelligent friend was buying all this.  He wants these “government/federal reserve/banker /rich people/ bastards” to pay for their sins.  He belived that this suit would bring about the downfall of the entire banking system and somehow usher in a new “golden age” by doing so.  He wants this so badly that he was willing to believe even this convoluted tale.

The Neil Keenan suit as best as I can tell is real.  It’s the basis of reality for its facts that I question.  For transparency sake here is a conspiracy site source:    http://www.fourwinds10.net/siterun_data/government/judicial_and_courts/news.php?q=1336095731

Here is a more detailed and better written explanation.  I can’t speak for the editorial bent of this site either way, though I strongly suspect a “conspiracy sympathetic” bent:  http://www.courthousenews.com/2011/12/05/41930.htm

That website link above is dated from December of 2011, so I sought more updated info on the lawsuit and found this:

http://iamretorque.com/2012/07/04/divine-cosmosdavid-wilcock/

This article, besides stating the suit had been withdrawn, extensively discusses the work of one Benjamin Fulford in substantiating the suit’s claims.  I wanted to therefore know who Fulford is, and quickly found his bio on Wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Fulford

This Wikipedia article states in part that “After the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, Fulford claimed on Japanese television that "[t]he American government in cooperation with [the] Federal Reserve, the Rockefellers, and other powerful groups, they are planning the eruption of Mt. Fuji Volcano”.  OK.  I’m done.  We are into the tin foil hat country of alien abductions and Illuminati.  I can’t accept anything this guy says with a straight face, and no intelligent well grounded person should.  If this is the best quality of support Neil Keenan can get for this convoluted and withdrawn lawsuit, I must allow this to be the final straw.  He too is most likely in the tin foil hat business.

My point in giving this stuff attention is that there are a great number of disaffected Americans who want a scapegoat for their issues.  They aren’t taught to be skeptical and to question sources.  If they are told something that gives them comfort, they believe it with all their hearts.  There is a lot of anger out there, and these conspiracy folks are working hard to tap into that anger through convoluted stories that seem to explain how the powers of the world are screwing the little guy.  I don’t have an answer for how to combat this.  My best suggestion is that the mainstream media outlets like Fox, CNN and MSNBC should discuss the most popular crackpot theories on a regular basis, using the time to explain in detail why these things are just not true.  they need to expose who is originating this stuff, and explain exactly what motivates them to spread this venom.

The truth about the healthcare debate

1 John 3:17-18

If anyone has material possessions and sees his brother in need but has no pity on him, how can the love of God be in him? Dear children, let us not love with words or tongue but with actions and in truth.

As recently as 150 years ago, a doctor in our civilization was little more than a charlatan.  Armed with splints and bone saws, all they could really do was set broken bones, do the occasional amputation, and kill pain with a few potions of questionable efficacy and safety.  Between the Civil War and World War one that slowly changed, and by the twentieth century all doctors were certified, trained men of great learning and were usually quite well paid. 

As that century progressed they gained more knowledge, became specialized, and could use more and more expensive tests and equipment to improve health and save lives.  As the costs for catastrophic care and even general care began to rise, people began to protect themselves en masse from catastrophic health burdens by grouping together in health plans.  Hospital and medical expense policies were introduced during the first half of the 20th century. During the 1920s, individual hospitals began offering services to individuals on a pre-paid basis, eventually leading to the development of Blue Cross organizations.  The predecessors of today's Health Maintenance Organizations (HMOs) originated beginning in 1929, through the 1930s and on during World War II.  These were by and large always employer paid group plans.  This system continued to work well into the 1980’s.  Costs for these plans were low enough that employers could justify paying for them as an expense required to attract and keep quality employees.

But in the 1980’s the costs began a dramatic rise.  The amount these insurers were charging companies began to be far more than they could justify.  Plans began to cover less and cost more.  Employers no longer found it justifiable to provide comprehensive health insurance to their employees.  Millions of Americans became uninsured or under insured.

What is wrong today is that so many people in the United States do not have health care coverage.  We see evidence of this almost every day.  How many times have you walked into a convenience store and seen a flyer pleading for people to attend a chicken mull or barbecue plate dinner as a means to help finance someone’s, often a child’s, health care costs.  Obviously something is wrong when we have to rely on the donated nickels and dimes of strangers to cover serious health care costs for our friends, our family, and our neighbors.  These people are dying if their health care costs are not covered.  Radiation therapy for cancer and medications to combat the rejection of a transplanted kidney are expensive.

Currently there are nearly 50 million uninsured Americans. These uninsured are not just the healthy young or the poor, but includes working people who either have no access to employer-based health insurance or who cannot afford to pay the premiums; small business persons who don’t qualify for group discounts or other affordable health insurance; and people of all ages with serious health conditions who insurers do not want as customers either at all or only at mind-boggling rates. All of these people will now have access to affordable health insurance.

            Under “Obamacare,” beginning in 2014, people earning less than 133% of the poverty level, $14,856 for an individual or $30,657 for a family of four, will be eligible for Medicaid funded, initially 100% by the federal government and then 90% federally funded. People earning up to 400% of the poverty rate will be eligible for federal subsidies to purchase health insurance if affordable job-based insurance is unavailable. These provisions will stabilize family economics and prevent the often catastrophic effects of unexpected medical bills, which expenses, in 2009, resulted in 900,000 Americans filing bankruptcy.

            While there are penalties if a person despite the above subsidies still chooses not to purchase health insurance, there are exceptions, based on income and cost of insurance. This penalty does not apply until 2014 and will initially be very small, $95 and then increase to $325 in 2015 and $695 in 2016 and will be applied against tax refunds; however, the IRS can neither jail nor seize an individual’s property to collect this penalty.  Thus, there will be no “prosecution” as opponents of the law allege.

            Small employers (25 or fewer employees) who pay at least 50% of their employees’ health insurance premiums, have benefitted from a tax credit since 2010 of up to 35% of the amount paid for employee health insurance.  Employers of more than 50 people will be penalized if by 2014 they don’t provide health insurance; however, the Act provides for the health insurance exchanges which make employers’ group insurance more affordable. These provisions have already and will continue to help new businesses, entrepreneurs and existing small businesses afford to hire new employees and grow their businesses.

            Young people get sick, suffer traumatic accidents, and have babies—all of which require costly health care.  Under the Affordable Care Act children up to age 26 are allowed to remain on their parents’ health insurance, already resulting in millions of previously uninsured youths having insurance. 

By 2014, insurance companies will be required to price and sell policies to everyone regardless of health status and high risk pools have already been established for persons with pre-existing conditions. Finally, many of us will be receiving a refund from our insurance companies next month due to new requirements that 80% of our insurance premiums go to paying claims.

 

            As President Obama has stated, this law is not perfect, but it is a major step forward.  Improvements absolutely can be made, and Congress should do whatever makes sense for the common good. However, the outcry by some to simply reverse Obamacare is non-productive and will do nothing to address the health insurance crisis that Obamacare is designed to address. 

Waste in Space

NASA spent ten billion dollars on the Constellation program during the five years of its existence, from 2005 until president Obama cancelled it in 2010.  They had little to show for the money except an expensive and almost catastrophic suborbital test flight of a dummy first stage and an incomplete space capsule. The Orion/MPCV capsule is the only piece they carried over to the current SLS program.  Developing the Orion capsule consumed about half of the money; $5 billion of that $10 billion.  Recent estimates for Orion reaching first flight say that it will require $6 to 7 billion more. NASA also spent around a billion dollars just to modify one of the shuttle launch pads so that it could be used to launch the Ares vehicle.

Meanwhile SpaceX developed and launched two complete launch vehicles, the Falcon 1 and Falcon 9, and a space capsule that will eventually carry humans in orbit, the Dragon. They designed and flew two different versions of their Merlin rocket engines plus their Draco thruster, they built a huge factory in California, a test facility in Texas, and launch facilities on a pacific atoll and at Cape Canaveral, Florida.  They are building another launch pad at Vandenburg Air Force Base in California.  They have done all of this for about $1 billion, and almost all of that was exclusively privately raised funds. The SpaceX Falcon 9 can put an 11.5 ton payload into low earth orbit (LEO) for approximately $54 million or $2400 a pound. The Falcon 9 / Dragon spacecraft will launch a 7 person crew to LEO for approximately $120 million or a fraction over $17 million per seat.  That's about one third of what Russia is now charging NASA for seats on Soyuz and an order of magnitude cheaper than Constellation would have been. Even the Chinese have flatly stated that they cannot match SpaceX on price.

Also, SpaceX plans to test fly its Falcon Heavy in late 2012 or early 2013.  The Falcon Heavy that will have a payload capacity of around 53 tons to LEO at a cost of less than $150 million per launch.  That is $1400 per pound, which is getting very close to the “holy grail” price of $1000 per pound. Again that was with ZERO developmental cost to the American taxpayer.

The future of manned space exploration is with commercial development, not bloated government programs like SLS.  The Space Launch System, or SLS, is the government funded project NASA came up with to please members of the House and Senate that opposed President Obama's efforts to lower costs by introducing commercial competition.  It followed the cancellation of the Constellation Program as the vehicle to replace the retired Space Shuttle.  An unofficial NASA document recently estimated the cost of the program through 2025 to total at least $41B for four 70 metric ton launches.  Some estimates place the SLS cost per pound to LEO at $8,500, more than six times that of the Falcon Heavy.

The Competitive Space Task Force, in September 2011, said that the new government launcher directly violates NASA’s charter, the Space Act, and the 1998 Commercial Space Act requirements for NASA to pursue the "fullest possible engagement of commercial providers" and to "seek and encourage, to the maximum extent possible, the fullest commercial use of space".  So why are we throwing scarce taxpayer money at the monstrosity called SLS, and not fully funding COTS and Commercial Crew programs?  Ask your Senator or Congressman.  Something is VERY wrong with this picture.